But I do want to give the Weather Channel forecast models props for getting the hot pattern correct in the general sense. And I still stand by my assertion that forecasting beyond 7 days or so is going to be more unreliable than not, especially without human intervention. But at least the model issued Saturday morning had the cooling marine winds a few days later - the typical process around here and way more believable than 8 days of 90s." Here is how their computers fared: (Weather Channel 15-day forecast initiated on June 20 / Actual verification at Sea-Tac Airport) June 20: 75 / 77 June 21: 78 / 78 June 22: 75 / 77 June 23: 79 / 79 June 24: 82 / 78 June 25: 83 / 87 June 26: 85 / 89 June 27: 91 / 92 June 28: 90 / 83 June 29: 92 / 84 June 30: 92 / 87 July 1: 91 / 90 July 2: 90 / 93 July 3: 91 / 92 July 4: 91 / 92 It turned out I was technically right - the temperatures did drop into the low-mid 80s at the start of the following week and there was no long 90s streak (at least, not yet). "That part of the forecasts is not a stretch. "I will say that the 7-8 day forecast models are starting to hint at a thermal trough for later next weekend which could in fact bump us into the 90s if it verifies," I wrote on June 20. My contention was that their computers had gone mad, that we'd never have 8 days in a row at 90 degrees or warmer, and gave the pratfalls of what happens when you let computers forecast without human intervention that far out in advance. The forecast was for 8 consecutive days at 90 degrees or warmer, which would obliterate all records for Seattle, which before in its 124 years of records had never had more than five. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.Back on June 20, I wrote a blog giving the Weather Channel a hard time with its 15-day forecast of an unprecedented heat stretch in Seattle. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Southern and southeastern regions are likely to experience the driest, brightest, and warmest conditions. Nonetheless, changeable weather dominates with showers or longer spells of rain remaining possible in all regions. Temperatures are expected to be close to the average over the period as a whole. 15/4 to 30/4Ĭhangeable weather dominates Temperatures generally above the average, although in the far north it could still be chilly at times. In the south and particularly the south east some drier and warmer days are possible. Therefore, all regions could have wet and windy spells, but they are expected to be the most frequent in the north and west. The forecast is for changeable weather to continue through the week. However, the second half of the week is likely to see milder conditions pushing northwards and it could turn quite warm in the south for a time. Through the first few days it will be chilly in northern Britain, but in the south temperatures will be close to the norm. All parts of the UK have showers or longer spells of rain.
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